In the past two, successful, attempts to beat the drop, we've had some sort of breathing space going into the post-split fixtures. In 2006/07 we were four points ahead of Dunfermline, while last season the gap was six points (20007/08 is irrelevant due to Gretna's implosion). This season, it's just goal difference that's keeping us off the bottom. No more can we keep hoping other teams continue to be poor, which seems to have been the tactic this season - and indeed, the last few seasons - from everyone at the club.
Yesterday's game against Falkirk was crucial, and once again our players failed to turn up until it was almost too late. The tactics and line-up were wrong too, with the ineffectual Billy Mehmet and Michael Higdon once again failing to trouble the scorers (unless you're counting own goals). Sadly, this has been the case for many months, with the inevitable result - we're once again staring relegation in the face.
It needn't be like this. We've won just three league games in 2010 - which is actually better than our previous relegation-beating attempts. We won game pre-split last year and none in 2007. However, it doesn't disguise the fact our form is horrendous. The unbelievable performance against Celtic is our only win since January, and that brace of victories were our first wins since October. It really is relegation form and is infuriating as a win here and there would have us in far better shape – something we would have managed had it not been for conceding so many late goals. Most other managers would have been sacked for our form in the past 15 months, regardless of what has happened in the cups. But that's an argument that has been covered before, and will undoubtedly be covered again in the future. What matters is the next five games.
There is no logical reason to suggest we will suddenly up our game. We've won six league games all season and eight since the start of 2009. We need at least three wins in the next five games, and even that may not be enough. Our away record is horrendous and we have three games away from St. Mirren Park. Sure, everyone else that we're battling with may be rubbish but, with the exception of Falkirk, they have more points to their names.
And yet, in 2006/07 we won three of our last five games - something we'd managed in the first year of the split in 2001. Where did that form come from? Who knows, but one thing is for certain - a repeat of last season's woeful finish will see us down before the final game against Aberdeen.
It is now time to meet this head on. The remaining five games are cup finals (actually, probably a bad analogy - let's hope no one we face gets reduced to 10 men). The players must give their all, go at the opposition from the off, battle for every ball. We cannot defend and hope things will happen. We need points - badly - and we need goals. The semi-final against Hearts and last season's game at Falkirk show what this side can do when it's let off the leash and the players put in a performance like we know we can. We need to see more of that in the next five games, not the stale, dull, pedestrian, predictable rubbish we've had for most of the past 15 months.
If things aren't working on the pitch, which has been the case for most of the season, then they must be changed. I'm not confident that will happen, and I'm even less confident we can stay up, but there will be plenty of time in the summer to moan about that.
The fans must play their part too, even if they are to be rewarded with dross like yesterday. Turn out in numbers and make some noise. It can make a difference.
St. Johnstone, Kilmarnock, Falkirk, Hamilton and Aberdeen. Those five fixtures in the next four weeks will decide our destiny. If we're going down, let's make sure we go down fighting.