Yesterday's win over Ross County puts is in a position the other teams in the bottom six would love to occupy. We're currently seventh and are three points clear of eighth - a situation that could change today at Tynecastle. Suddenly, having looked as if we'd be lucky to avoid the play-offs, we find ourselves with a terrific chance to finish top of the bottom half. Incredible stuff but we can't count our chickens just yet. So how many more points do we need to secure another season in the top flight?
One. A draw against Kilmarnock on Wednesday would be enough as it would make it impossible for both them and Hibs to pass us as they face each other on the final day. Alternatively, a draw against Hearts does the job as it would be impossible for all the other sides to make it onto 39 points.
Usually when I write these articles when we're in a multi-team scrap to avoid the drop I look at all the ways we can get the results we need. However, investigation by various people suggests there's only one combination of results that could possibly see us finish 11th - so let's look at that instead!
Today, Hearts play Kilmarnock. If Killie fail to win then we are safe as, again, it's impossible for everyone else to pass us. However, Killie have won their last six games at Tynecastle - a run stretching back more than four years. Let's assume they win - otherwise this article wouldn't last very long! That leaves the table looking like this at the end of the weekend:
| P | GD | Points | ||
| 7 | St Mirren | 36 | -18 | 38 |
| 8 | Kilmarnock | 36 | -17 | 36 |
| 9 | Hibs | 36 | -18 | 35 |
| 10 | Partick Thistle | 36 | -20 | 35 |
| 11 | Ross County | 36 | -20 | 34 |
On Tuesday night Hibs go to Ross County. If they win then we're safe - but there's as much chance of a Hibs win as there is of me going out with Keira Knightley (one day I'll say yes...). Hibs revert to type and County win. The following night we go to Kilmarnock while Partick Thistle play us. Killie beating us would be bad but would make them safe, while Partick Thistle beating Hearts 2-0 - who have nothing to play for - would be bad too. That would leave the table looking like this going into the final day.
| P | GD | Points | ||
| 7 | Kilmarnock | 37 | -16 | 39 |
| 8 | Partick Thistle | 37 | -18 | 38 |
| 9 | St Mirren | 37 | -19 | 38 |
| 10 | Ross County | 37 | -19 | 37 |
| 11 | Hibs | 37 | -19 | 35 |
Still not a disaster and things very much in our own hands. Hearts, despite having nothing to play for, are bringing a huge crowd to Paisley next week and are no doubt looking to finish on a high. The prospect of heaping the misery on us after last year's cup final and the events of 1986 is one they'd relish so let's say we lose. Even then it still needs other results going against us - Hibs finally winning a game and then County winning at Firhill. That gives a final table that looks like:
| 7 | Ross County | 38 | -18 | 40 |
| 8 | Kilmarnock | 38 | -17 | 39 |
| 9 | Hibs | 38 | -18 | 38 |
| 10 | Partick Thistle | 38 | -19 | 38 |
| 11 | St Mirren | 38 | -20 | 38 |
As you can see, not good! While we'd be equal on goal difference with Thistle, they'd have scored more goals and thus be ahead of us. Suddenly, from having seventh within our grasp, we find ourselves second bottom and facing a shoot out with Falkirk, Hamilton or Queen of the South to stay in the Premiership.
It would take an incredible run, and if one of those results doesn't go as planned above then we're fine (although Hibs drawing on Tuesday also keeps things ticking along). But this is St Mirren - safety isn't assured until it's impossible for the other teams to pass us!
Of course, having written all this no doubt Killie will not win later and render this rambling irrelevant...
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