It's been mentioned before, but I might as well mention it again. We're awful against teams from a division or two below us when it comes to cup games. In the last few years Forfar, Gretna, East Fife, St. Johnstone and Dunfermline have all taken glee in knocking us out of one of the cups while a league below us. How many times does it need to happen before the media stop referring to it as a cup upset? We even made hard work of seeing off East Stirlingshire in the previous round!
Still, let's think positive. Ayr are a newly promoted first division side who lost to Morton on Saturday. We beat both sides in pre-season training. Therefore, we should win this one. Of course, things rarely work like that - especially when Saints are involved. There is absolutely no room for complacency if we want to avoid another cup shocker. While other SPL teams might play a few fringe players, we can't. We must go with the strongest 11 available.
Unfortunately, the chances are Hugh Murray will be absent from the team. The midfielder somehow managed to play most of Saturday's game against Dundee United and is unlikely to be played again so soon. Steven Thomson will probably replace him. The rest of the team will probably be the same, although most folk reckon it's time for Tom Brighton and Stephen O'Donnell to be given a shot. It's a fair point - Brighton impressed on Saturday, while O'Donnell had a good pre-season. However, realistically, the only other change I can see is Michael Higdon coming in for Craig Dargo as the small striker isn't fully fit. Chris Smith misses out through injury and Mo Camara is still sidelined.
While the Billy Mehmet/Michael Higdon partnership did the job against East Stirling, I can't see it working tomorrow night. Ayr United have a freak in defence that answers to the name Kevin James and he'll mop up any high balls that come his way. It's the sort of game Dargo would be ideal for, but we'll probably only see him from the bench.
So who is the most likely candidate to score the goal that consigns us to another "shock" cup defeat? My money is on Bryan Prunty. The striker was outstanding last season as United won promotion and has scored against us before during his time with Ayr United. Former Saint Mark Roberts is another option, as is midfielder Ryan Stevenson and Football Manager legend Kevin Cawley. Knowing us, it'll probably come for a set piece, so James or Andy Aitken are also good bets.
Or we could pull off a shock of our own and manage to see off a lower league opponent in the League Cup for once. Fingers crossed!