This is a game we should be looking to win. Our future is in our own hands and if we go at Hamilton from the off, there is no reason why we can't take three points and make a giant leap to securing our SPL survival. Tomorrow won't decide who stays up or who goes down, but it will almost certainly have a big say in the matter.
History is not on our side. Not only are we poor against Hamilton - we last beat them at Love Street - but we are fairly poor when it comes to head to head matches with our relegation rivals in the closing weeks of the season. We didn't beat Dunfermline at all in 2006/07, the following season was irrelevant and the following season we lost to everyone in the run-in apart from Falkirk - when it really was do or die time. Last season we did manage to beat Kilmarnock after the split, but that was it. Ironically we did beat Dundee United in the final few weeks of the 2000/01 season and promptly got relegated.
So the omens are not good. However, no one but us can change that. No one but us can secure our SPL survival, as much as it would be nice to hope that the Accies keep losing. We must grasp the initiative. We have had numerous chances to put points between ourselves and Hamilton and only taken one, usually conceding a late goal when it looks as if we could pick up a handy result. That all has to stop now if we are to stay in the top flight. But we've lost so many late goals this season I wouldn't be surprised if we entered the last 10 minutes tomorrow with a 5-0 lead and still ended up losing.
While we only played one striker in our last game at Tynecastle, it was actually quite an attacking team. Both Michael Higdon and Paul McGowan started, while Aaron Mooy and Kenny McLean were in midfield. All four did well but don't be surprised if some of them are dropped - particular Mooy and McLean, seeing as that's their usual reward for a good game. Hopefully if one of them is dropped it's to make way for Craig Dargo rather than a returning Hugh Murray as an extra defensive midfielder is the last thing we need.
The last game saw a reshuffling of the defence, partly out of necessity and partly due to form. John Potter was finally dropped and if we can have David van Zanten and Jure Travner at fullback, that should still be the case. A pairing of Darren McGregor and Lee Mair is far more solid and at least they have a bit more physical presence. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Potter return - or Marc McAusland continue at fullback, despite it being obvious he is simply not comfortable there. On the injury front, David Barron is the only one missing.
During the summer, Hamilton manager Billy Reid was linked with the Swansea job but apparently turned it down. If he'd known what would happen this season, he'd probably have grabbed it. The Accies have struggled in their third year in the SPL, having not been involved in the relegation battle in the previous two seasons. Time is running out for them as they bid to beat the drop, but the fact it us they are chasing should give them a boost considering our tendancy to do stupid things and gift struggling teams wins. With no wins since October and just two all season, Hamilton certainly fit that bill.
Hamilton did give their survival hopes a boost in January when they brought Mickael Antoine-Curier back to the club. The striker did well for Accies last season and was their highest scoring striker, but then spent many months without a club due to injury. Now he's back and banging them in again and is already the club's joint top scorer for the season. He's a decent player and I wouldn't have minded us signing him in January if he was fit (which he wasn't really). Instead, we nicked Jim Goodwin from Hamilton, who was arguably their best player at the time.
It's fair to say that while Hamilton coped with the loss of James McCarthy in 2009, they have felt the departure of James McArthur a year later rather badly. That's perhaps a simplistic way of looking at things, but it is surely more than coincidence that their dip came after the youngster's departure. What made things worse was that playmaker Alex Neill has spent the majority of the season injured. Neill is a superb midfielder who we have been linked with in the past and his return to fitness for the final few months of the season is like a new signing for Hamilton.
Accies do have plenty of other good players. Simon Mensing has been a surprise source of goals in the past- but thankfully is suspended along with Dougie Imrie and Mark McLaughlin - while Marco and Flavio Paixao are capable of chipping in from time to time. Nigel Hasselbaink is also a good striker and I'm duty bound to point out his uncle Jimmy Floyd used to play for Chelsea and Leeds. While Hamilton have struggled to score this season, they've also conceded a fair number - surprising considering they have McLaughlin and Martin Canning in defence and Tomas Cerny in goals.
Despite Hamilton being below us, this will not be easy. This is the type of game we've messed up time and time again - let's just hope tomorrow isn't another occasion to add to the long list of disappointments.
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