This is not very scientific, but it does throw up some interesting results. I looked at our previous four SPL seasons (ignoring 2000/01 as it's irrelevant) and this season, noting how many goals we had scored and conceded in the last 10 minutes of matches. I then worked out how many points we have dropped or gained as a result, and the difference in the tallies.
I used Soccerbase for the goal times, so only if they say a goal was in 80 minutes or later will it be taken into account. There are two sets of results, one for goals between 85-90 minutes and one for between 80-90 minutes.
Anyway, here's the data from season 2006/07:
| Minute conceded | Conceded | Scored | Turned win into draw | Turned draw into defeat | Turned win into defeat | Made no difference | Turned defeat into draw | Turned draw into win | Turned defeat into win | Made no difference | Points lost | Points gained | Difference |
| 85-90 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| 80-90 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
As you can see, the situation in our first season up wasn't too bad. We only conceded five late goals and scored just as many. We won more points than we lost and the most important goal of the season - John Sutton's against Motherwell - was in the last 10 minutes. These figures do not include the Scottish Cup defeat to Dundee United. We lost to a late goal, but we'd also equalised with a late goal so I didn't know how to deal with that!
A positive start. Let's see what happened in 2007/08.
| Minute conceded | Conceded | Scored | Turned win into draw | Turned draw into defeat | Turned win into defeat | Made no difference | Turned defeat into draw | Turned draw into win | Turned defeat into win | Made no difference | Points lost | Points gained | Difference |
| 85-90 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -1 |
| 80-90 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
Not a great deal to report here. We pretty much gained as many points as we lost over the course of the season - so things balanced themselves out. We conceded almost three times as many goals in the last 10 minutes as we scored, but interestingly eight of the late goals we conceded made no change to the result, while all the ones we scored did.
On to 2008/09:
| Minute conceded | Conceded | Scored | Turned win into draw | Turned draw into defeat | Turned win into defeat | Made no difference | Turned defeat into draw | Turned draw into win | Turned defeat into win | Made no difference | Points lost | Points gained | Difference |
| 85-90 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1+ 1 cup place | -4 (+ 1 cup place) |
| 80-90 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 game (2 goals) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4+ 1 cup place | -6 (+ 1 cup place) |
This is where things start going wrong. On one occasion, against Dundee United at Tannadice, we managed to turn a winning position into a losing one in the final 10 minutes. More than half the 12 late goals we conceded made a difference to the result, while all but one of the late goals was irrelevant. We did progress in the Scottish Cup as a result of a late goal. Ironically, the other late goal victory was against Inverness Caley Thistle, who went down on goal difference. We stayed up by two goals - without the four late goals that made no difference we'd have gone down, but they also cost us six points.
And if you think that's bad, here's last season:
| Minute conceded | Conceded | Scored | Turned win into draw | Turned draw into defeat | Turned win into defeat | Made no difference | Turned defeat into draw | Turned draw into win | Turned defeat into win | Made no difference | Points lost | Points gained | Difference |
| 85-90 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 (-1 cup place) | 5 (+1 cup place) | -3 |
| 80-90 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 1 game (2 goals) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 13 (-1 cup) | 6 | -7 (-1 cup) |
Another winning position turned into a defeat and again it was against Dundee United - this time it was in Paisley. We conceded 12 late goals, around the same as the previous two seasons, but this time just two made no difference, with six seeing us beaten. One late goal put us into the League Cup quarter-finals, while another put us out of the Scottish Cup. Of course, another late goal - and our incompetence - also cost us a trophy. The irony is we actually scored more late goals than we conceded, but few made any difference. Even more ironic is the only goal in the last five minutes of a game that turned a defeat into a draw was Stephen O'Donnell's against Falkirk, which effectively kept us up!
That just leaves this season:
| Minute conceded | Conceded | Scored | Turned win into draw | Turned draw into defeat | Turned win into defeat | Made no difference | Turned defeat into draw | Turned draw into win | Turned defeat into win | Made no difference | Points lost | Points gained | Difference |
| 85-90 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 (-1 cup place) | 4 | -7 (-1 cup place) |
| 80-90 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 game (2 goals) | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 (-1 cup place) | 6 | -7 (-1 cup place) |
A loss of seven points again, but we have conceded 17 goals in the last 10 minutes - comfortably the worst tally - and scored hardly any. Admittedly, three of these have turned draws into wins, but it is still a shocking position to be in. Even half the 13 points lost would have us sitting pretty, while one particular late goal cost us a place at Hampden. We also managed our usual trick of turning victory into defeat but this time it was Hearts, rather than Dundee United, who managed that.
So, in summary:
| Season | Conceded last 10 minutes | Scored last 10 minutes | Points lost | Points gained | Difference |
| 2006/07 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 2007/08 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| 2008/09 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 4 (+ 1 cup place) | -6 (+1 cup place) |
| 2009/10 | 12 | 14 | 13 (-1 cup) | 6 | -7 (-1 cup) |
| 2010/11 | 17 | 4 | 13 (-1 cup place) | 6 | -7 (-1 cup place) |
Things seem OK in the first season, but we've steadily lost more goals since then. The last two years are particularly concerning, and the amount of late goals lost this season is a ridiculous.
We've now engaged the services of a sports psychologist to deal with that situation and there's plenty of time for the figures to get better - or worse...
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